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AI搜索首条出现盗版网盘链接，平台及时删除，法院：不构成侵权

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2026-09-16T12:42:56+08:00 · 搜索RAG,版权诉讼

Small Programming Tricks

Lobsters

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2026-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC · AI应用,具身智能,开源,Agent智能体,搜索RAG,强化学习,招聘HR,开发者生态

I trained a 44M parameter quantized LLM from scratch on 45B tokens. It ships in 19.8 MB and runs at ~1,900 tok/s on CPU. [P]

Reddit r/MachineLearning

Three weeks back , i posted SHADOW-250M here. It got 360 upvotes, 293 on r/LocalLLaMA and 94 GitHub stars. Thank you.

That model was 60 MB, ran around 400 tok/s on CPU and could retrieve records from an archive on disk. What it couldn’t do reliably was reason over what it retrieved or compute. So I built a smaller one to experiment with those two problems.

SHADOW-50M is actually 44M parameters, trained from scratch on 45B tokens. 19.8 MB complete model, ~1,900 tok/s on laptop CPU, ~41 MB RAM, ternary {-1,0,+1} weights, 73,880-token vocabulary represented by fixed 512-bit fingerprints instead of a trained embedding, and a 159 KB compiled kernel. It runs completely offline. The same kernel compiled to WebAssembly runs in a browser tab at around 500 tok/s.

This is a proof of concept, not a product.

If SHADOW decides something needs calculation, it writes something like [calc]347*86[eq]. A fixed circuit at the readout takes over and fills in the correct digits in the same token stream. No calculator API, no tool call and nothing pasted back into the prompt. I added circuits for arithmetic, percentages, dates, weekdays, units, counting, sorting, comparisons and a small program machine.

When SHADOW stores a record, it reads it once and writes its attention state to disk at 1 bit, 288 bytes/token. Later it can write [need]condition of Patient P-204, the index finds the record in roughly a microsecond and the stored attention state goes directly back into the model in about 0.03 ms. The text isn’t re-read.

The index is 22 bytes/token and doesn’t use a vector database or embedding model. At 100M tokens, the archive is 28.8 GB plus a 2.2 GB index on disk, while the process uses about 28 MB RAM because everything is memory-mapped and a question only touches the pages it needs.
The index also has a small persistent trail. When retrieved information gets used, that record is reinforced in the index itself. On repeated questions, measured top-1 went from 0.571 to 0.743 without training the model.

I also put it next to Supra-50M-Reasoning, a 51.8M parameter Llama-style bf16 model.
Supra beats SHADOW on every standard benchmark I tested. ARC-Easy: 0.435 vs SHADOW 0.307. PIQA: 0.600 vs 0.570. WikiText-2 perplexity: 165 vs 186.
I’m publishing that because I don’t want to hide where SHADOW is weak.
But those tests aren’t what I trained this model for. Here are some actual greedy outputs, one fresh process per question:
“Tell me a short joke about computers.”
SHADOW: Why did the computer go to the doctor? Because it had a virus.
Supra: Thought for 189 tokens about what computers are and stopped without a joke.
“I have 3 books and I bought 5 more. How many books do I have now?”
SHADOW: You have 8 books.
Supra: Books often come from collections of short stories, poems, or other forms of literature.
“My bill is 240 dollars. What is 15 percent of that?”
SHADOW: 36 dollars.
Supra: 15% ($240) is $250. It’s $150 because 20% of it is $200.
“What date is 45 days after December 20, 2026?”
SHADOW: February 3, 2027.
Supra: The German government introduced a new date called March 22nd that precede February 25th in 1900.
Eight records stored, one of them “Patient P-204 condition: asthma”.
“What is the condition of Patient P-204?”
SHADOW: From disk: The condition of Patient P-204 is asthma.
Supra, with the records in its prompt: The patient experiences asthma when they get too much sleep.
“What is the condition of Patient Z-999?” No such record exists.
SHADOW: There is no record of Patient Z-999.
Supra: The condition of an allergic reaction occurs when the immune system mistakenly attacks specific cells on the body.
All 11 side-by-side questions, scripts and traces are in the repo.
On size, Supra is 103.6 MB in bf16 and 56.2 MB at 8-bit. Below that it starts losing quality. Int4 takes its perplexity from 165 to 193 and ternary breaks it. Its vocabulary is 32,000 tokens. SHADOW carries 73,880 tokens in a 4.7 MB frozen table.

Something unexpected happened with that frozen table too.
The first SHADOW-50M release was missing about 8,600 English word pieces. Lowercase “fitzgerald”, for example, could reach the model as “fitz”. I tried fixing it through fine-tuning, but every run that learned the missing words broke something else.
So I added the 8,600 missing rows directly to the frozen fingerprint table. No training. Same weights.
All 34/34 previously published answers stayed unchanged, while the model could now read many of the new pieces. The table scores 0.594 Spearman against human word-similarity ratings versus -0.057 for random codes.
A trained embedding can’t simply accept thousands of new rows without training. A frozen table can.

I also built four harnesses that put this tiny model next to larger models.
My favourite is video memory. Gemma 3 4B watches a ten-minute film once, one frame every two seconds, and writes 298 little descriptions such as “Moment M-0039 scene: A chubby white rabbit reaches for a purple butterfly.”
Then Gemma leaves.
SHADOW keeps those 298 moments as memory on disk. Afterwards I can ask the 20 MB model what happened at a particular moment, by number, by time or by what appeared in it. It answers from memory with the record quoted, without the film and without Gemma. It scored 55-56/60 across those query types on a laptop in about 42 MB RAM.
The other three experiments: an inventory of 1,600 records got 159/160, with all 20 questions about items never stored correctly returning “no record”; SHADOW as a draft model for Qwen3-32B took llama.cpp generation from 19.7 to 28.5 tok/s while Qwen still chose every final token; and an MCP memory server let Qwen3-14B store facts mid-chat and later retrieve 5/5 with the original records quoted.

There are plenty of shortcomings. General knowledge is thin. Creative writing isn’t good. Seven-digit operands sometimes get copied incorrectly. A large archive can occasionally pull an unrelated record into a question carrying a number. They’re documented in the repo next to the successful results.

And one thing happened after my last post that I really didn’t expect.
Someone called engram-forge sent a pull request to SHADOW-250M containing a CUDA engine, a quantization tutorial, and then a talking Peppa Pig plush toy with SHADOW inside it.
Microphone, small speaker, ~$35 board. You talk to the toy, it listens, SHADOW generates the answer locally and the toy talks back. No cloud, no account, no internet.
I haven’t merged the ~11,000 lines yet because I can’t properly verify that much CUDA myself. When the demo is finished I’ll keep it under engram-forge’s name.
I never imagined one of these models living inside a stuffed toy on someone’s shelf .Thanks

I’m not saying a 20 MB model beats normal LLMs. It doesn’t. I’m trying to find out how much useful behaviour can fit into a tiny local model when computation and persistent memory are treated differently.
Everything is MIT licensed. The master weights and fine-tuning/export kit are public. Next I’m releasing the training code, dataset, frozen table and a proper write-up of how I built it, including the costs, failed experiments and mistakes.

Code:
https://github.com/QLNI/SHADOW-50M-Instruct
Weights:
https://huggingface.co/QLNI/shadow-50m-instruct
Run it in your browser:
https://qlni.github.io/SHADOW-50M-Instruct/web

submitted by &#32

2026-09-15 12:59:37 · 大模型,算力芯片,开源,Google,Meta,NVIDIA,阿里巴巴,Agent智能体,推理思考,搜索RAG,Transformer,扩散模型,微调蒸馏,模型评测,向量数据库,提示工程,招聘HR,榜单评测,开发者生态

Show HN: Hacking a $20 4G wireless hotspot into a texting device

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· AI应用,具身智能,开源,搜索RAG,扩散模型,强化学习,端侧AI,招聘HR,榜单评测

Learning to solve hard problems in RL for LLMs by never giving up

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· 大模型,AI应用,开源,OpenAI,阿里巴巴,DeepSeek,Agent智能体,推理思考,搜索RAG,办公效率,强化学习,微调蒸馏,模型评测,提示工程,招聘HR,榜单评测,论文

We got admin access to Baseten's production GitHub

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2026-09-01 · AI应用,开源,Meta,代码生成,Agent智能体,搜索RAG,办公效率,招聘HR,榜单评测

Saving Jet Fuel

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· 算力芯片,AI应用,具身智能,开源,Microsoft,NVIDIA,语音音频,搜索RAG,扩散模型,强化学习,招聘HR,榜单评测

Introducing System One Models and Jev

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· 大模型,算力芯片,AI应用,开源,OpenAI,Google,Anthropic,Microsoft,DeepSeek,代码生成,对话助手,Agent智能体,推理思考,搜索RAG,扩散模型,强化学习,模型评测,提示工程,模型安全对齐,端侧AI,招聘HR,榜单评测,开发者生态

Know Your Agent: Reconnaissance-Driven Pentesting of AI Agents

arXiv cs.LGarXiv:2607.19837v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Traditional pentesting uses reconnaissance at each step to uncover unseen weaknesses, build stronger attacks, and advance the objective; we argue that AI agents require the same treatment. We formalize agent reconnaissance by modeling the process and identifying the knowledge assets it seeks to extract: what they are, how they are used, and which agent weaknesses they exploit to give adversaries leverage in indirect prompt injection attacks. We instantiate these insights in Know Your Agent (KYA), a framework that automates black-box, reconnaissance-driven pentesting by probing agents, building target profiles, and using those profiles to craft stronger attacks. We evaluate KYA on agent-security benchmarks and a real-world coding agent, and release KYA, its benchmarks, and baseline implementations for reproducibility.

2026-09-16 04:00:00 · AI应用,Agent智能体,搜索RAG,扩散模型,模型评测,提示工程,论文

CBW: Towards Dataset Ownership Verification for Speaker Verification via Clustering-based Backdoor Watermarking

arXiv cs.LGarXiv:2503.05794v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Speaker verification models are trained on large-scale public datasets whose licenses usually prohibit unauthorized commercial use, yet such infringement is difficult to detect or deter. Dataset ownership verification (DOV) is the mainstream countermeasure: it can watermark a dataset with backdoor attacks so that models trained on it exhibit owner-specified behaviors. However, existing DOV methods presuppose a closed label space fixed at watermarking time, whereas in open-set speaker verification the identities that a deployed model accepts are enrolled by third parties after release and are never observed by the dataset owner. We show that straightforward adaptations fail in two characteristic modes, and accordingly distill three requirements for an effective watermark, namely identity agnosticism, coverage, and fidelity, together with an intrinsic tension between the latter two. Our clustering-based backdoor watermark (CBW) resolves this tension by partitioning training speakers into clusters by feature similarity and implanting a distinct trigger for each cluster, so that each trigger covers one region of the speaker embedding space while the trigger set is designed to jointly cover it. We further develop paired hypothesis tests for ownership verification under both the similarity-available and the decision-only black-box settings at the 1-to-1 and 1-to-$N$ enrollment scales, and theoretically characterize when the audit succeeds, including an exact small-sample certificate and the effect of the enrollment size. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets and representative models verify the effectiveness of our CBW, its resistance to watermark-removal attacks, and its transferability across model structures. Code is at https://github.com/Radiant0726/CBW/tree/master.

2026-09-16 04:00:00 · 大模型,AI应用,开源,搜索RAG,扩散模型,强化学习,微调蒸馏,模型评测,向量数据库,招聘HR,论文

Amortized Probabilistic Retrieval of Atmospheric CO2 from OCO-2 Spectra Using Deep Learning with Laplace Approximations and Normalizing Flows

arXiv cs.LGarXiv:2606.17413v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Space-based monitoring of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO$_2$) constrains the global carbon budget. NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) estimates column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO$_2$ (XCO$_2$) from high-resolution spectra, but operational retrievals are computationally expensive and impose stringent Gaussianity assumptions on the retrieved posterior. We present a deep learning framework that addresses both through amortized probabilistic inference. Lacking ground truth for real observations, we train and evaluate on a high-fidelity OCO-2 simulation ensemble with calibrated forward-model errors, comparing against the version-10 ACOS full-physics retrieval on the same radiances. Our architecture encodes each spectral band separately and estimates posteriors of the full CO$_2$ column, or summaries thereof, with Laplace approximations and conditional normalizing flows. Once trained, inference costs milliseconds per sounding rather than minutes, and calibrated posteriors are attainable at that cost. Trained on simulations that explicitly include forward-model discrepancy, our retrievals are more accurate than the operational one for XCO$_2$ on both data partitions we consider, and competitive on profiles. The flow represents asymmetric posteriors that a Gaussian cannot, a gain attributable to shape rather than scale, and its advantage in predictive density persists where its accuracy advantage does not. These results are established on a land-only ensemble against one configuration of the operational algorithm. On reference soundings withheld from training and on two unseen months the XCO$_2$ and density advantages persist while calibration degrades under sparsely sampled observing conditions, pointing to the diversity of the simulated scene population rather than the method as the main obstacle.

2026-09-16 04:00:00 · AI应用,搜索RAG,扩散模型,招聘HR,论文

Tail-Shape Estimation in LLM Evaluation Is Fragile: A Protocol for Diagnosing False Positives

arXiv cs.LGarXiv:2606.16511v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent work motivates moving large language model (LLM) evaluation from mean-based to tail-aware metrics, including conditional value-at-risk and tail-index estimates of reward-model error. We ask whether the canonical extreme-value-theory tail-index parameter, which isolates how heavy a tail is from how large the tail mass is, adds discriminative information beyond the mean and a standard tail-magnitude statistic in LLM evaluation. We pre-register a protocol covering admissibility, goodness-of-fit, threshold-stability, and effect-size requirements for any positive tail-shape claim. The protocol is the contribution of this paper; the empirical study below is a demonstration of what its gates catch. Applied to a standard LLM toxicity-evaluation setup under two structurally different scorer families, the protocol catches three distinct modes of false positives that a naive analysis would have published, and rejects the headline tail-shape claim on both scorers. We conclude that tail-shape estimation in the LLM toxicity-evaluation setups we examined is more fragile than the recent literature suggests, and recommend the protocol as a starting point for tail-index claims in similar setups.

2026-09-16 04:00:00 · 大模型,AI应用,搜索RAG,扩散模型,招聘HR,论文

BASIS: Batchwise Advantage Estimation from Single-Rollout Information Sharing for LLM Reasoning

arXiv cs.LGarXiv:2605.27293v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards has become a standard recipe for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models. Existing algorithms face a tradeoff between computational efficiency and sample efficiency in value estimation and policy learning. We introduce BASIS, a critic-free post-training algorithm designed to address this tradeoff. At each online training step, BASIS samples only one rollout per prompt, but leverages rich information across prompts in the entire batch to improve value function estimation. Our experiments demonstrate that BASIS reduces MSE in value function estimation by 69% compared to REINFORCE++, a representative single-rollout baseline, and achieves lower MSE with one rollout than group mean estimators with 8 rollouts. This improvement in value estimation translates to better policy optimization: using substantially less training time, BASIS achieves performance close to multi-rollout GRPO-type baselines and often outperforms single-rollout REINFORCE-type baselines.

2026-09-16 04:00:00 · 大模型,AI应用,推理思考,搜索RAG,强化学习,提示工程,论文

EviDep: Uncertainty-Aware Multimodal Depression Estimation via Disentangled Evidential Learning

arXiv cs.LGarXiv:2604.16579v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Audio--visual recordings provide complementary cues for estimating depression severity, but their informativeness varies across time and modalities. Point predictions alone do not express the uncertainty associated with these estimates. We present EviDep, a multimodal evidential regression framework that integrates multi-scale temporal modeling and shared--private representation learning for uncertainty-aware depression estimation. Frequency-aware Feature Extraction decomposes behavioral feature sequences into multiple frequency bands and refines them with scale-specific experts. Disentangled Evidential Learning encourages the disentanglement of cross-modal shared and modality-specific information in the refined features. Multi-branch Evidential Regression maps the resulting shared and private representations to three Normal-Inverse-Gamma (NIG) outputs and uses evidence-weighted aggregation to estimate depression severity and quantify aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Experiments on AVEC 2013, AVEC 2014, DAIC-WOZ, and E-DAIC show competitive prediction accuracy, with ablation studies supporting the contributions of frequency-aware refinement and shared--private disentanglement. Further analyses show that estimated epistemic uncertainty helps identify higher-error predictions, while both uncertainty estimates generally increase under controlled feature degradation.

2026-09-16 04:00:00 · 算力芯片,AI应用,Google,多模态,搜索RAG,强化学习,招聘HR,网络安全,论文

LLM-Guided Dynamic Action Spaces for Synthesizable Molecular Optimization

arXiv cs.LGarXiv:2604.07669v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Synthesizable molecular optimization seeks to improve target properties while ensuring that molecular modifications follow feasible synthetic pathways. Existing synthesis-aware methods typically rely on exploring a large space of candidate transformations defined by reaction templates and purchasable building blocks. This search becomes even more challenging when property improvement requires multiple reaction steps, as the space expands further along the pathway. To address this challenge, we introduce MolReAct, which reformulates molecular optimization as search over compact reaction spaces proposed by a tool-augmented large language model (LLM). At each step, the LLM combines its prior chemical knowledge with cheminformatics tools to identify a molecule-specific set of compatible reactions, preserving synthesizability while making multi-step optimization feasible. Given this compact action space, we further leverage Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with the terminal oracle reward to improve long-term decision-making over multiple reaction steps. Across diverse molecular optimization tasks, MolReAct achieves the highest Top-10 score on 11 of 14 tasks and the best sample efficiency on 12 of 14 tasks, outperforming existing baselines under limited oracle budgets. Beyond these gains, MolReAct also provides each optimized molecule with a template-grounded synthetic pathway.

2026-09-16 04:00:00 · 大模型,AI应用,搜索RAG,强化学习,榜单评测,论文

GeoCrossBench: Cross-Band Generalization for Remote Sensing

arXiv cs.LGarXiv:2511.02831v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The data for remote sensing is constantly acquired, and new data comes from a growing number and diversity of satellites, while the vast majority of labeled data comes from older satellites. As remote-sensing foundation models for Earth observation scale up, the cost of (re-)training to support new satellites grows too, so cross-band generalization across sensors and satellites is increasingly important. We introduce GeoCrossBench, an extension of the popular GeoBench benchmark with a new evaluation protocol for cross-band generalization across sensors and satellites: it tests standard in-distribution performance with the same bands for train and test, generalization to inputs with no intersection between train and test; and generalization to test inputs containing a superset of the training bands. We develop $\chi$ViT, a self-supervised extension of the band-agnostic ChannelViT, as a supporting baseline for cross-band generalization. We evaluate a representative set of remote-sensing-specific and general-purpose vision models, characterize current performance, and identify directions for improvement through 11,900 H100 GPU-hours of experiments. When averaging dataset-specific metric scores, DOFA leads the in-distribution setting (61.30), frozen Panopticon leads the no-overlap setting (22.75), and ImageNet-pretrained ViT-B leads both the superset setting (56.19) and the overall average across settings (45.27). While top rankings in each setting are close, we clearly see that all models suffer significant performance losses when evaluated on unseen bands. We will publicly release the code and datasets to support the development of more future-proof remote sensing models with stronger cross-band generalization.

2026-09-16 04:00:00 · 算力芯片,AI应用,搜索RAG,强化学习,预训练,模型评测,端侧AI,招聘HR,收购并购,榜单评测,论文

Explainable Graph-theoretical Machine Learning with Application to Alzheimer's Disease Prediction

arXiv cs.LGarXiv:2503.16286v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Dementia affects over 55 million people worldwide, projected to reach 139 million by 2050, with Alzheimer's disease (AD) accounting for 60-70% of cases. AD is associated with disruptions in metabolic brain connectivity. Detecting these disruptions early is crucial for AD management. FDG-PET is a useful tool for identifying such impairments. However, most studies rely on group-level analyses or thresholding, potentially masking individual differences and overlooking weaker yet biologically critical brain connections. Moreover, AD prediction largely focuses on univariate rather than multivariate outcomes. To address this, we introduce explainable graph-theoretical machine learning (XGML), a framework for constructing individual metabolic brain graphs and identifying subgraphs most predictive of multivariate disease-related outcomes. Using Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) FDG-PET data, we compared six graph representations against three non-graph baselines, each with six machine learning models using repeated stratified 3-fold cross-validation (10 repeats). The best configuration combined kernel density estimation with Hellinger distance and random forest. Across eight cognitive scores, it reached an overall Fisher-z-averaged Pearson correlation of r=0.595, with strongest performance for ADAS13 (r=0.67), ADAS11 (r=0.65), and ADASQ4 (r=0.62). We identified key edges that were jointly but differentially predictive across outcomes, suggesting their potential as network biomarkers of cognitive decline. Preliminary external feasibility validation on an OASIS3 cohort yielded weak predictive performance for CDRSB (r=0.26) and MMSE (r=0.18), likely reflecting cohort, protocol, and diagnostic differences. Overall, our results suggest the promise of graph-theoretical machine learning for biomarker discovery, disease prediction, and understanding the neural mechanisms underlying AD.

2026-09-16 04:00:00 · AI应用,Meta,搜索RAG,招聘HR,网络安全,论文

Type-IV Code Clone Detection via Layer-Wise Non-Contrastive Representation Learning

arXiv cs.LGarXiv:2609.17338v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Software clones are fragments of code that are similar or functionally equivalent to each other. They pose significant challenges for maintenance, refactoring, and bug detection. Detecting Type-IV clones, which are semantically equivalent but may differ syntactically, is particularly difficult for traditional token- or syntax-based methods. Recent machine learning approaches rely on contrastive learning, which requires careful negative sampling and can introduce bias. In this paper, we propose LWVIC4Code, a non-contrastive representation learning approach specifically designed for Type-IV clone detection. Building on the Variance-Invariance-Covariance Regularization (VICReg) framework and prior layer-wise VICReg training, LWVIC4Code introduces cross-layer consistency regularization and depth-dependent layer weighting to progressively refine semantic information across transformer layers, producing robust and discriminative code representations. We conduct an empirical study comparing LWVIC4Code against a contrastive learning baseline and zero-shot large language models on Python (Kamino) and multi-language (GPTCloneBench) datasets. Results show that LWVIC4Code achieves competitive or superior performance without negative samples, benefits from layer-wise supervision, and generalizes effectively from Python to other languages, particularly Java and C#. These results demonstrate that non-contrastive, layer-wise representation learning is a promising direction for robust semantic code clone detection.

2026-09-16 04:00:00 · 大模型,AI应用,搜索RAG,Transformer,扩散模型,论文

Conformal Policy Learning with Distribution-Free Safety Guarantees

arXiv cs.LGarXiv:2609.17296v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Policy learning aims to determine who should be treated based on individual characteristics. In high-stakes settings such as medicine and public policy where safety is a central concern, improving the average outcomes alone may not be sufficient: decision makers may also seek to protect individuals from harm, in line with the Hippocratic principle of ``do no harm.'' In this paper, we propose \textit{conformal policy learning} (CPL), a policy learning procedure with a new distribution-free safety guarantee that controls the probability of assigning treatment to an individual who would be harmed relative to control. CPL views each treatment decision as testing a hypothesis of counterfactual harm and assigns treatment by thresholding conformal p-values. These p-values use observable proxies and selective calibration to address the challenge that the potential outcomes under comparison are never simultaneously observed. For randomized experiments, under standard exchangeability conditions, CPL provides finite-sample safety guarantee at a user-specified level, without imposing any outcome modeling assumptions. Moreover, when the outcome model is consistently estimated, CPL achieves asymptotically optimal welfare subject to the safety constraint. In observational studies, CPL with learn-then-balance weights achieves doubly robust safety guarantees. We evaluate CPL through extensive simulations and apply it to an empirical study of AI-powered interventions designed to reduce conspiracy beliefs.

2026-09-16 04:00:00 · AI应用,搜索RAG,扩散模型,强化学习,招聘HR,论文

Splitting the Difference: Interpretable Causal Forests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity and Bias

arXiv cs.LGarXiv:2609.16971v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In various fields, such as medicine and marketing, accurately predicting individual treatment effects holds significant promise. However, achieving reliable predictions alone is often insufficient for making informed decisions; it is equally important to understand why the treatment effect is higher for some individuals than for others. To address this two-fold challenge of prediction and interpretation, we introduce an algorithm based on decision trees and random forests for estimating individual treatment effects. Our algorithm is simple: it operates exactly like a standard random forest, but with a different splitting criterion, and requires no additional workarounds such as double machine learning or orthogonalization as used in Generalized random forests. It handles observational studies with varying treatment propensities without requiring separate estimation of the full propensity function. This is achieved by combining two splitting criteria---one targeting heterogeneity in the treatment effect, the other targeting bias correction for the average treatment effect---which together improve split point selection and automatically distinguish confounders from features responsible for heterogeneity. As a result, interpretation follows directly from the fitted tree structure itself, that is, from which features the trees split on and with which split statistics, without requiring separate post-hoc analysis. For the theoretical analysis of this algorithm, we consider a change point model with step functions for potential outcomes and treatment propensity and provide insights into the theoretical underpinnings of our approach. Simulation studies show that our simple algorithm achieves comparable, and often better, prediction accuracy than existing methods, while substantially improving interpretability.

2026-09-16 04:00:00 · AI应用,搜索RAG,扩散模型,论文

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